After spending 485 days as an undertrial in corruption cases, YSR Congress chief Jagan Mohan Reddy stepped out of prison on bail on Tuesday in a very different political environment in Andhra Pradesh from the one that prevailed earlier — the Congress has moved decisively towards bifurcating the state, and the TDP appears to be aligning with the BJP in the hope of benefiting from the Narendra Modi factor but remains ambivalent on the bifurcation issue.
So which of the two parties present Mr Reddy the bigger challenge? The answer to the question can have a bearing on the YSRC’s fortunes. Surveys indicate that Mr Reddy’s party continues to be on a strong footing, the cases against its leader notwithstanding. This will give Mr Reddy strength as the polls draw close.
The YSRC appears to be jettisoning Telangana and concentrating on coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, which together have 25 Lok Sabha and 175 Assembly seats. The party has made clear it would not back a “communal coalition” at the Centre. This rules out the BJP and leaves the door open for a tieup with a Congress-led grouping, if this is expedient. Not surprisingly, the TDP sees a Congress plot in Mr Reddy securing bail.
A role in national politics may not be out of Mr Reddy’s mind until the next Assembly election. The game would really depend on how the numbers stack up for all parties. A national role will also depend on the YSR leader’s equations with other ambitious regional satraps.