In the US, Republicans have not only wrested control of the House of Representatives but also diminished the Democrats’ majority in the Senate. It does not bode well for Barack Obama but it offers a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges for Manmohan Singh, whose term ends only in 2014.
The shift in the balance of power on Capitol Hill will have implications for India’s foreign policy, particularly on contentious issues such as Af-Pak, China, Iran, non-proliferation and climate change.
The anticipation here is that Mr Obama will not find it prudent to push for ratification of the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) at least in the next two years as the Democrats will not have a two-thirds majority in the Senate. For India, which wants to wait till the US and China have ratified it, this will mean less motivation to forge a national consensus on nuclear testing. In a 2009 speech in the Czech Republic, Mr Obama had said that he would aggressively pursue ratification of the CTBT.
No dramatic changes are likely in Mr Obama’s Af-Pak policy but the conservatives among the Republicans can be expected to question the roadmap drawn up for drawing down US troops in Afghanistan. Mr Obama might be tempted to tweak his Af-Pak policy when it comes up for review in December. As for India, it expects to have a fair say in how the US plans to play the end game in Afghanistan.
New Delhi should not be surprised if there will be a firmer American stand on Iran and China. A more strident line on the Iranian nuclear programme might pose a few problems for India, particularly as it begins its two-year term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council in January. However, a change in the Obama administration’s attitude towards China will not be unwelcome here. Domestic opinion in the US, fuelled in part by the global economic crisis and Washington’s push for trade and currency reforms in China, and pressure from a Republican-controlled Congress may force Obama’s hands on China.
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Haley’ win delights Amritsar
Asit Jolly
Chandigarh
Nov. 3: Residents of Amritsar city are delighted with their brand new American connection — the newly elected South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, born (in 1972) Nimrata Randhawa to Dr Ajit Singh Randhawa and Raj Kaur Randhawa just a year after the couple migrated from the Sikh holy city.
It is almost four decades and there is hardly anyone in Amritsar who has any recollection of the Randhawas, but there is no dearth in the immense pride that residents here feel at seeing one of their own “kudis” as governor and perhaps the chance of one day making it to the White House as the USA’s first woman President.
“Nikki was born a Sikh, she will be the President of America soon. I said a special ardas (prayer) for her this morning,” said Hardip Kaur emerging from her daily visit to the Golden Temple. This septuagenarian grandmother has family “back” in the USA and most endearingly pronounces the new governor’s name with the typically Punjabi emphasis.