At least three southern states — Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu — are becoming politically “unstable”.
While Karnataka could head for President’s Rule if chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa plays his cards smartly, in Andhra Pradesh Congress MP Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy is daring the high command to check the demand for a separate Telangana state and in Tamil Nadu, the DMK is losing its bargaining power ahead of the state Assembly polls.
The Congress might be optimistic of getting political mileage out of the situation in Karnataka but it is unsure of retaining its hold over Andhra Pradesh which had played an important role in bringing the Congress back to power at the Centre and in the state in 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha and the state Assembly elections.
The main Opposition BJP has been trying to put the Congress-led UPA government in the dock on the corruption issue but it may not succeed so long as Mr Yeddyurappa remains chief minister of Karnataka. His removal may lead to the fall of the first BJP government in the South, mainly because the saffron party is surviving on technical majority. It does not have even a wafer-thin majority in the state Assembly.
A removal of Mr Yeddyurappa, the tallest Lingayat leader the BJP has in Karnataka, could change political equations and arithmetic in the state and make a “number game” (of MLAs) interesting among political players.
The Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) are in no position to form a government collectively unless they split the BJP and a new chief minister will find it difficult to run a government, sources said.
The Congress has been defensive on the pricing of the 2G issue which has raised questions on the silence of the top leaders of the UPA government.
The party has removed Mr Ashok Chavan on the Adarsh Housing scam and MP Suresh Kalmadi from the post of CPP secretary against the backdrop of the Commonwealth Games mess.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had to drop Mr A. Raja from the Union Cabinet on the 2G issue. But this will not stop here because people are waiting for various inquiry committee reports on the CWG.
The Karunanidhi-led DMK has learnt the trick of how to remain in power at the Centre.
It was in the United Front governments led by H.D. Deve Gowda and later I.K. Gujaral, later joined the Atal Behari Vajpayee government and then switched over to the Congress-led UPA.
In short, it has been in power at the Centre for nearly 14 years.
But the DMK appears to be losing its bargaining power. It is keen to remain with the Congress as the DMK lacks confidence to take on the AIADMK in the coming Assembly polls on its own.