Reputations will count at the ballot

In the year to which we just bid farewell, we had a scam a month from every party, every region. And even though the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continue to fire moral blanks at each other on the 2G spectrum issue, we need to take a positive view of the situation. The political authority in this country still has the ability to fight the financial mafia, our political system at the Centre has not been compromised, our courts are not silent spectators, and the majority of our media is beyond political influence.
The archaic system of governance inherited from the colonial era contributes to the confusion. And that is why, perhaps, corruption is not new in the developed and developing economies during periods of strong and sustained economic growth. In India’s case, a coalition government with its inherent weakness and a system of political donations that lacks transparency further complicates matters.
But in an India that is fast changing and getting younger, tolerance for corruption and extortion is fast diminishing and becoming major issues with the voting public. If the United Progressive Alliance government fails to act effectively on the Commonwealth Games and the 2G scam, then all the sermons given by those in governance — the smart legal and political views given by the ruling party and the Opposition — will mean little when, in the next few months, people determine the winners and losers in various states.
A series of electoral battles are on the horizon and there is a great deal of political activity in many states. In the last few election contests we have seen that votes tend to consolidate in favour of the “winner” in the final stages and ability, competence and integrity impact in the final verdict. We have seen this trend in Bihar and I think we are going to witness one-sided electoral battles in West Bengal where Mamata Banerjee will win by a landslide, Tarun Gogoi in Assam will win with a bigger margin than before as will Mayawati and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh. The Left will lose to the Congress on non-performance in Kerala and in Punjab the Akali Dal — is in a similar position as it has done very little.
The situation in Tamil Nadu is very fluid. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) on the last occasion had gifted televison sets to voters and after the 2G scam I wonder what they will offer? No one believes that former telecom minister, A. Raja was the only one to pocket the 2G loot and the effect of the likely alliances will give indications of the other beneficiaries to the voter in Tamil Nadu and in the rest of the country.
Political battles cannot be resolved by the law courts, or by using government agencies, or even by politically-active governors. They have to be determined on the political battlefield and in coalition politics it is not possible for any individual to swing an election on the basis of just their ability and charisma.
The Congress, with an effective leadership at the Centre, does not have effective leaders to pose an electoral challenge to Naveen Patnaik in Orissa, the All-India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam- DMK in Tamil Nadu, the Left in West Bengal, the BJP in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and there is total chaos in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka and a very unsettled situation in Maharashtra. In 2011 the Congress has much to do to create credible leadership in the states mentioned above.
The BJP chaos at the centre continues as we see in the 2G scam and this will continue until they have credible long-term team at the centre. They are fortunate to have effective chief ministers in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh. But for both the national parties I see a struggle ahead to maintain their 2009 numbers. I see a spurt in the numbers of the regional parties. We have seen several skirmishes, and, while they do not reflect the final course of the battle, they do indicate a trend.
We have had enough of politics and, as I have repeated on a hundred occasions, there is little need of a joint parliamentary committee or even an activated Public Accounts Committee. A Supreme Court-monitored investigation by the Central Bureau of Investigation is the best option. It would be wise for everyone to remember that our overactive media is on a permanent high alert and the 2G scam will not be buried.
There are also very disturbing reports with regard to former Chief Justice K.G. Balakrishnan, and the letter controversy involving Mr Raja. There are reports of the excessive assets of his son-in-law, Sreenijan, who had contested the last Assembly elections on a Congress ticket and is now interested in the Assembly seat from Kunnathunadu. The matter is serious and should be investigated immediately. Details of the alleged land deals should be made public. It is necessary for the judiciary to resolve this issue at the earliest. In my opinion this issue is more important than the 2G issue, or, for that matter, all the scams put together. As we enter the New Year, let us do so on a optimistic note that correct action will be taken quickly in the matter.