The mood is blue

The Cabinet reshuffle has come and gone but has done little to restore confidence in the Prime Minister or give a positive indication for the future course of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.

The reshuffle is difficult to understand, so perhaps the best way to make some sense of it is to look at it from the perspective of the multiple power lobbies that spring up every time a crisis occurs. Yet, the fact remains that the Cabinet reshuffle was an opportunity lost for the UPA government and the Prime Minister.
One can deduce from the changes in the Cabinet that decisions on crucial issues will be affected. We see that happening already in the attitude of the government on the 2G issue in terms of its reaction to the Comptroller and Auditor General’s (CAG) report and the appointment of the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC). It is very clear that the investigation into former telecom minister A. Raja’s role is being delayed till after the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu.
The failure of the Central Bureau of Investigation to file a chargesheet and the recent release of Organising Committee chairman Suresh Kalmadi’s three aides is adding to the doubts. The Supreme Court hearings next month should clearly indicate the direction the government plans to take on these cases.
On the 2G scam, telecom minister Kapil Sibal indicated a “zero” revenue loss. He and others in the Congress party are within their rights to express their opinion, as is the CAG. But there can be no defence of Mr Raja as his assets alone tell a startling story. The ruling party, both at the Centre and in the states, cause irreversible loss to the system if they condone such serious issues by using delay tactics. All concerned should remember that retribution always comes and that the voting public is always two steps ahead of the political parties. The 2G issue is far from over and the longer it is allowed to drag the greater the damage to the UPA, the Congress and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Of course, we must not seek “instant justice” on any issue. But the facts that emerge after a set of blistering headlines across the electronic and print media must be explained as soon as possible.
Those who are supporting the UPA 2 are already feeling uncomfortable and insecure and there is a general feeling that the government has lost direction. The statement by the Prime Minister on “black money” in foreign banks after the observations of the Supreme Court has only deepened the cynicism.
All in governance must remember that credibility is not gained by winning the “numbers game” but by having and exercising moral authority. This is lacking in the current dispensation and that is why the credibility of Dr Manmohan Singh is suffering along with the credibility of UPA 2. While things in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and some of the regional parties in Opposition may be equally confused, there is little doubt that the ruling combination will suffer the maximum loss.
While in the recent spate of thefts, the 2G scam and the Commonwealth Games stand out because of the sheer audacity of those involved and the amount of money that was made, it’s the response of UPA 2 and the Congress on all cases that is most disappointing. Confrontation with the Opposition on every issue at the Centre and in the states, and with the law courts and other constitutional bodies is difficult to understand. And it looks like things are only going to get worse in the coming months.
India has had a record nine per cent GDP growth and yet the industry is in a bad mood. There is a great deal of cynicism in the air cutting across all income groups. Despite a good monsoon and a record crop, food inflation is in double digits and the stock market is in retreat. The Prime Minister’s economic dream team is clearly lacking in clarity and ability and is generating nightmares instead of solutions.
The UPA government may have done a hundred things wrong, but I think that the high command has done well on environment issues. Credit will, of course, be given to minister of state for environment and forests Jairam Ramesh though the fact is that little would have happened without the Right to Information Act and the army of non-governmental organisations which, like the media, tend to overreact on certain issues. But then, look at the vested interests they encounter as they try to fight for our future survival.
The Lavasa hill city issue is critical to send a message to vested interests and also to the decision-makers. But no one is in favour of knee-jerk reactions and harsh action. The promoters are guilty, but so are the decision-makers both at the Centre and in the states. The sensible thing, therefore, is to arrive at a “compromise” solution and try to reverse the damage based on a practical assessment in which both sides are involved. Harsh decisions will result in legal disputes that can go on for decades and result in destruction of public and private assets.

As January 26 approaches, it is time for all of us to reflect on the past, the present and the challenges of the future. We cannot look at 2011 with the lessons of the past as we have a coalition structure with mediocre leadership. Earlier, during the days of majority rule, victory or defeat was determined by leaders who could swing an election by their ability and charisma. Indira Gandhi, who was humbled in 1977 after the Emergency but stormed back in 1980, was one such leader.
I don’t believe in panic reactions but we are unable to deal with the challenges of governance and are wounding institutions like the CAG and the CVC. Parliament has been stalled, and now the governor of Karnataka, H.R. Bhardwaj, is prosecuting chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa on corruption charges based on a private complaint.
The BJP called a state-wide bandh on Saturday and schools and colleges remained closed. I wonder what will happen if 1,00,000 people surround the Raj Bhavan? We look helplessly at the Supreme Court for justice and the rule of law. In a system bursting with talent and ability at all levels, we are being held hostage by a political system that is clearly outdated and does not reflect the current reality. I sincerely hope and pray that this is peaceful and democratic and no one resorts to any form of violence.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister