There is finally some good news for UP chief minister Mayawati.
A poll survey conducted this month puts her ahead of her political rivals and shows that she is all set to become chief minister of UP for the second consecutive term. A voters’ attitude survey conducted by politicsparty.com in all the 403 Assembly segments between January 21 and 23, show that Ms Mayawati remains a frontrunner in state politics and could win 240 seats of the total of 403 seats in the next Assembly elections.
The survey that interviewed 200 people (100 men and 100 women) in each constituency, including various social and caste groups, found that the BSP has kept its dalit vote base intact and Muslims prefer the party in a big way. The BSP is also getting the votes of the upper castes and the OBC in constituencies, where the BSP candidate is from the upper castes and the OBC. The dalit vote with the BSP also remains transferable which explains the party continuous growth in state politics.
The SP, contrary to general perception, seems to be rapidly losing ground according to the survey. The party, the survey predicts, will win only 59 seats compared to the 97 seats it won in the 2007 elections. The SP, it seems, is suffering losses on account of division of Muslim votes and erosion in the Kurmi vote within the OBC category. However, it adds, Mulayam Singh Yadav may sprint ahead if there is a communal polarisation of votes and the Muslim votes swings in his favour.
The Congress is lagging behind with just eight seats, compared to the 22 seats it had won in the 2007 polls.
The factors that are severely damaging the Congress are price rise, corruption and lack of charismatic leadership for the chief minister’s post in the state.
The BJP, surprisingly, has been projected as winning 80 seats in the next Assembly elections, compared to the 51 it had won in 2007.
According to the survey, the BJP is all set to bounce back following the resurgence of Hindu sentiments after the Ayodhya verdict and the party’s aggressive stand against the UPA government on the issue of scams and price rise.