Revolutionary dynamics is sweeping significant countries of the Arab world, and the remarkable events have come unheralded within an extremely short space of time. In the face of popular anger Tunisia’s dictator of 23 years, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, fled the country to take refuge in Saudi Arabia. Egypt’s 82-year old President Hosni Mubarak, who has clung to power for 32 years, appears to be hanging on by the skin of his teeth. He has used repression as a routine tool to suppress dissent but has now been obliged to sack his government and appoint a new Cabinet as a mark of conciliation. Such cosmetic change is unlikely to impress Egyptians. The mood is grim in Jordan and Yemen. Surprisingly, the bursting of popular rage on to the streets to target long-term dictators has been without preparation. This is significant because a spontaneous explosion of people’s rage is typically not known to throw out or shake governments. It does appear that the Islamists, who are the main political or ideological adversary of most West Asia dictatorships, were also caught unawares. They did not lead the protests anywhere. In Egypt they remained formally aloof from the tumultuous protests until it became clear they might lose ground among their supporters if they did not quickly join. In political terms, this suggests that so far the opposition to the despotic regimes has been secular, without religious moorings. The despots resisted political reform and gave their people little more than high unemployment, low economic growth, and rapidly escalating prices. They now face their comeuppance.
Yet, what shape the revolts in multiple countries will take is an open question. The overthrow of dictators does not mean an automatic transformation to democracy unless pro-democratic movements have preceded the change. Indeed, it does appear that the Islamists — shades of Muslim Brotherhood can be found all over West Asia and enjoy strong core support — can potentially leverage the situation to their advantage. Military takeovers in situations such as these can also not be ruled out. It is fair to say that societies of Islam are in turmoil in the home base of Islam. Countries being shaken up are not oil-rich, like some others in the region. The latter have largely managed to contain discontent through the use of oil wealth for welfare measures. Those in the grip of revolutionary fervour today have not had such luck. Their grasping rulers have survived so far chiefly on account of repression at home and financial and military help from the United States. America is now making the right noises in order to hedge its bets but the home-grown potential revolutionists — who are not sponsored by any external agency — seem to be looking to nobody for assistance. If they are to succeed, they must establish a clear leadership early, not allow violence against any section of the population, and show awareness that any hospitality to Al-Qaeda-style tendencies can be counter-productive. Else, the revolutionary tide can spread to more parts of the region and carry with it a malign spirit. That can impact stability beyond the region.