Coalition is expected to be the order of the day after the Assembly elections in five states, including Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. This has become clear after major political players, including the Congress, DMK, CPI(M), Trinamul Congress, AIADMK, decided to fight the electoral battle in alliance with the like-minded parties.
The Congress had fought the Bihar Assembly elections on its own in 2010 with a calculation that this could help it to regain lost grounds in the state. But it had failed once again and could not even get double digit numbers in the state Assembly despite fighting all the seats.
The Congress is a junior player in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal and thus fight the battle under the leadership of chief minister M. Karunanidhi and railway minister Mamata Banerjee. But in Kerala, Assam and Puducherry the game is different. There, the Sonia Gandhi-led party is a major player but not strong enough to contest the elections on its own.
It is leading the UDF in Kerala and will go for local-level alliance with small parties in Assam. In the last Assembly election, it was forced to ally with the Bodoland People’s Front and retained power with the help of “others”. This time, the Congress managers are optimistic of winning the coming Assembly elections because of divided opposition.
In West Bengal, the Congress is banking on the premise that Ms Banerjee cannot defeat the Left Front on her own and will have to take the support of the Congress. But it is not in a bargaining position following its poor performance in the local body elections held some time back.
However, the Congress could get a better deal in Tamil Nadu where the DMK is on the defensive for different reasons. According to the sources, the PMK is giving conflicting signals on rejoining the DMK-led front mainly because it wants 50 Assembly seats and a Rajya Sabha seat, The PMK has a strong presence in about 40 Assembly seats, sources said. The outcome of five state Assembly polls could be a moral booster for the Congress ahead of the Uttar Pradesh electoral battle. This is because the Sonia Gandhi-led party stands to gain in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal and it can retain power in Assam and Puducherry if the party can play its cards well.