Fear no factor

It is time for jubilation in Egypt as President Hosni Mubarak departs. After being in office for almost 30 years, was finally defeated by the desperate desire of the people for freedom and democracy. This historic episode is not only a lesson for the Army Council in Egypt but also serves notice to other absolute rulers in West Asia —that change is, indeed in the “air”. First Tunisia, then Egypt, and now the focus will shift to Yemen and Jordan. The United Stated (US) — which has democracy at home but supports dictators abroad — has much to ponder about.

The entire world watched in shock and horror when camels and horses carrying goons armed with swords attacked the peaceful protesters in Cairo. We all saw how vans stolen from the US embassy mowed down and killed people on the streets of Cairo. We saw overwhelming video images, within seconds, on our cellphones, YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. This brought a sense of involvement and immediacy and changed the way we think and act to world events. It took a few minutes for global opinion to erupt — people commented on Facebook, SMSed their support, blogged, Tweeted — and soon all the powers of Mr Mubarak, the Army and the secret police were neutralised.
The people of Egypt have forever changed the way governments will function hereon. There will be greater accountability as the “fear factor” has been conquered and killed on the streets of Cairo.
All of West Asia is in turmoil and our thoughts are with the people of Egypt who will now struggle for democracy. What we have witnessed in the past 18 days is the power of people who expressed their aspirations for a democratic existence. For the next 18 days we will witness a “power play” by the US and its multiple lobbies (Israel and the oil barons) as they try to cobble together a stable combination in Egypt to safeguard their interests. For the Caucasian West, the aspirations of the people of West Asia will always come after its own “strategic interests”.
If you look at the map of West Asia and North Africa, the reasons for the crisis begin to become clear. The map of North Africa has Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, and towards the south lies Sudan, Ethiopia, Yemen and Somalia. In West Asia, Saudi Arabia is ringed by Jordan on one side and by Iraq and Iran on the other side, with the Gulf states squeezed in between. In this cluster, which has a bloody and fascinating record of conflicts, the “freedom virus” will trigger many flash points. Winds of change sweeping across from the neighbouring countries cannot be contained to suit either the objectives of an external superpower or internal power centres.
Many parts of North Africa, which suffered colonial rule in the 19th and early part of the 20th centuries, never really moved towards a democratic structure. The Western forces that controlled this area for their own political and commercial interests set up puppet regimes and these “absolute” rulers were careful to avoid clashes of interest. Sadly, this kind of arrangement does not always work, as we have seen in Egypt, Iraq and Iran. In each case, the result was a conflict, followed by a change of regime.
It is because of its strategic relevance that West Asia constantly draws the attention of the US and the erstwhile USSR. The bitter and wasteful Iraq and Iran conflicts, that took place from 1980 to 1988, resulted in close to 6,00,000 fatalities and an equal number of people were left wounded or maimed. The US and USSR both covertly supported Iraq under Saddam Hussein — the USSR assisted Iran in exchange for neutrality in Afghanistan, and the US used Iran to fund anti-Communist forces in Nicaragua and certain elements in Lebanon.
Much has happened in West Asia since Egypt signed a “peace accord” with Israel brokered by the US. President Anwar Sadat was assassinated and Mr Mubarak, a staunch ally of the US, succeeded him.
Iran, after the exit of the Shah of Iran in 1979, has remained hostile to the US. In Iraq, the ambitious Saddam Hussein was humbled and hanged after the US waged a war in Iraq that was based on the assumption that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. The attack was opposed by the United Nations and many in the Western world, but George W. Bush and Tony Blair sent their troops and missiles anyway.
Egypt, meanwhile, had continued to be under the absolute rule of Mr Mubarak until Tunisia exploded and within a few days President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country. Gradually the movement spread to Yemen, Egypt and Jordan, and suddenly the speed with which events were overtaking decisions signalled a new approach for the future.
For almost a decade now, the world has seen and felt the impact of the information technology revolution, especially the social networking sites. But I think this was the first time we all saw the real power these tools had as they demolished the might and support system of Mr Mubarak, and, I think, prevented what could have been a catastrophe in Egypt if the camera phones and YouTube hadn’t been around.
The Government of India has given a measured response as to the developments in Egypt as it has to keep its interests intact. But India must do more. It must play a constructive role. Being a member of the Group of Twenty its voice is heard and India's balanced views may well carry a great deal of credibility with the people of Egypt. There is no such thing as a “perfect government”, but India does have a stable and a very vibrant democracy.
As we see events unfold in West Asia it is time for us to reflect on our immediate past and pay a silent tribute to the Indian voter who has — over several elections and at multiple levels — helped us preserve our democratic institutions. Any form of excess has been punished at the ballot and corrective action has followed.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister