Compulsion of coalitions, as referred by Prime Minister during his interaction with the media in New Delhi, has put the UPA constituents in the dock. Top leaders of the Trinamul Congress, DMK, NCP and the National Conference have not so far reacted. But their “action” could be seen during seat-sharing talks in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal polls.
Congress managers are unable to explain how its allies are a “liability” at the Centre and assets in states. The Congress is a junior partner of the Karunanidhi-led DMK in Tamil Nadu and the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamul Congress in West Bengal going to Assembly polls in the next couple of months. In Kerala, another state going to the poll, the Congress is heading the UDF against the LDF.
Corruption is going to be the major plank of the AIADMK and the Left in these states. They would use this issue to put the DMK and the Congress on the defensive. Besides the 2G spectrum allocation scam, alleged corruption in the Commonwealth Games in New Delhi and Adarsh housing scam in Mumbai have also become relevant in the Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala battles. They would use it against the Congress. The Adarsh land was reserved for family members of Kargil martyrs.
Interestingly, the Congress allies in the UPA — DMK, Trinamul Congress and the National Conference — had a history of sharing power with the BJP in the NDA. Any attempt to corner them could compel the Congress to move towards the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, known for their political unpredictability.
The Congress has never been comfortable with coalitions although it had dethroned the BJP-led NDA at the Centre through a coalition in the 2004 general elections. This is because the party strategists are clear the Congress’ real political enemy is never the BJP but the regional parties. They have kept the Congress out of power for over four decades in Tamil Nadu, over three decades in West Bengal and over two decades in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Even Maharashtra, once considered to be the strong Congress state, has been ruled by coalitions since 1995. Earlier, it was the Shiv Sena-BJP combine and the fractured mandate had compelled the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP to come together after the 1999 Assembly polls.
This means the Congress is not in a position to form a government on its own in these five major states. It had defeated the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, another major state, in the 2004 Assembly polls only after allying with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi.