The shocking events in Libya over the past few days presage the unravelling of the broad coalition of tribal conglomerates husbanded by the military dictator, Col. Muammar Gaddafi, which has governed the country for over four decades, the longest serving dictatorship in the Arab region, possibly the world. The more than explicit brutality of the regime toward its own people had shades of the cruelty of Pakistani soldiers toward the Bengalis of East Pakistan which led to the breakup of the country and the founding of Bangladesh in 1971. The Libyan security forces have rained ammunition from fighter planes and helicopter gunships. Milling protesters have also been fired upon with machineguns by soldiers. The number of the dead and injured can hardly be accurate when the foreign media is denied entry and there appears to be a fairly effective communications blackout in place. Reports based on sketchy phone conversations with protesters suggest that hundreds of people may have been killed with bullets fired by the military and possibly over a thousand others wounded. To place reliance on estimates of this nature may be risky. There is no gainsaying, however, that the regime has engaged in open military confrontation with its own unarmed citizens. This brutality has shocked the world. Libya’s ruling elite now appears divided and many of its leading lights have defected. The justice minister is said to have resigned. Libya’s ambassador to the US, its deputy ambassador to the United Nations, its ambassador in India and senior diplomats in London have denounced the Gaddafi dictatorship and quit. Two colonels in the Libyan air force disobeyed orders to fire on the people from the air and chose to defect and land their planes in Malta. Available accounts suggest that foreign mercenaries have been brought in to attack protesting crowds with lethal weapons as the integrity of the military — divided on tribal and clan lines — has come into question. If this is true, it would appear that the base on which Col. Gaddafi’s power rested is crumbling, although the dictator remains defiant.
Whether media reports are verifiable or not, all the signs are that the regime has been pushed on the backfoot to the point that the dictator’s heir apparent, his younger son Seif al-Islam, promised in a late night television speech that the ruler and his family would “fight to the last bullet”. This is a sign that the regime is tottering. Even if a new dictatorship emerges — under other members of the elite in case Col. Gaddafi is ousted or is obliged to flee — the old equations are likely to change irretrievably, bringing in their wake key changes in the country’s political outlook. The possibility of civil war and the breakup of Libya cannot at this stage be dismissed out of hand. Libya is an oil-rich country and continuing chaos there can have an appreciable impact on the international oil economy. It is therefore to be seen how the UN Security Council assesses the emerging situation. A part of the difficulty is that unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, there appears to be in respect of Libya no clear understanding on anybody’s part who the protesters are, if there are any organisations at work, and what the aims and slogans of the anti-Gaddafi movement might be, or if there is a movement at all. Information is lacking on these matters as the country is effectively cut off and foreign observers kept out.
India’s response to the extraordinary happenings in the North African country has been less than muted. New Delhi has only said it would evacuate Indian workers if needed. In the UN Security Council, India needs to take a clearer-cut position against the dictatorship which has rained bullets on masses of its own people.