The Union Budget is in the final analysis a political statement, one that is used to win over different sections of the electorate in a democracy. Around a month ago, when the Centre found itself before the bar of public opinion on the issue of a series of corruption-related scandals as these tumbled out of the cupboard, and the Opposition parties were in full cry, there was an expectation that the 2011-12 Budget would be put to judicious use by the government to win over popular sympathy.
The anticipation to this effect was said to be high in Congress circles. But a calculation of this nature had not factored in the Assembly polls just around the corner. Conceivably, if there were no elections, the plan to use the instrument of the Budget to dull the impact of corruption cases might not have been wholly unrealistic. But with the ballot season looming, that argument is hard to sustain in the natural course. Indeed, precisely because the government’s opponents would not want it to run away with an advantage, they may be expected to tailor their parliamentary strategy to give the treasury benches a harder time than they might otherwise have done in the Budget Session, which more or less coincides with the run-up to the elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and the Union territory of Puducherry. On Tuesday the chief election commissioner announced the dates for the polls in each of the states. With that, we might expect battleground Parliament to be in the eye of the storm.
There is arguably enough to please the rural sector in the Budget exposition made by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on Monday, and also particular benefits for the states heading for Assembly elections in April-May. But how much can the ruling side make this count? The Opposition parties may be expected to milk the inflation and unemployment issues for all they are worth. Perfectly sedate arguments — that employment will follow since the investment climate has been made conducive, and that inflation is a consequence of several international factors outside the control of the Indian government — may appear persuasive on paper, but not on the stump. In campaign speeches, it is the here and now that counts, not promises for the future. We may, therefore, expect more drama, walkouts, and in general shrill denunciation of the government in Parliament to catch the ear of the poll-bound electorate. The plain reason is that a lot could be riding on the results. If the Congress performs below par in states in which it is expected to do well, the joint parliamentary committee probe into the 2G affair will have another ring. If the opposite turns out to be the case, there is a likelihood that the course of the JPC inquiry and its findings will lack bite, in general or specific terms. The BJP, in particular, was especially enthused when the government was made to eat humble pie and concede the demand for a JPC probe against its best instincts. This party is not likely to be too closely involved in the Assembly polls, except in Assam. As such it would have much more of a free run in Parliament, where it can be expected to hang out in strength during the campaign period to make it tough for the government. The Left will be differently placed, of course, given its high stakes in West Bengal and Kerala. The Congress leadership, and many of its senior figures in Parliament, may be expected to be fully distracted by the election process. The party is committed in a major way in all the states where elections are due. If it does not strategise well, it could find itself at the receiving end throughout the Budget Session of Parliament, and beyond.