The Congress is confident of winning Kerala and retaining power in Assam but it is heavily depending on the Trinamul Congress and the DMK in the historic battle to be fought in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in the next two months.
Well-placed sources in the Congress said the feedback coming from Kerala and Assam is on expected lines. The division in regional parties in Assam could help the Congress to retain power consecutively for a third time. According to the sources, the party may not contest all the seats in Assam on its own but would have seat-sharing arrangement with some regional outfits to check the AGP and the BJP.
The Opposition parties in Assam have not emerged as an alternative to the Congress so far. And if chief minister Tarun Gogoi opts out from the chief minister’s race, then the party managers will find it easier to keep the house in order. AICC general secretary Digvijay Singh was given the charge of party affairs in the state a few months ago.
In Kerala, the Congress is almost “over-confident” that it will defeat the LDF led by the CPI(M) this time. But the Congress’ supporting parties at the Centre view that the elections may not be a cakewalk for the Sonia Gandhi-led party mainly because the Left undertook a damage-control exercise following its debacle in the Lok Sabha elections in 2009.
If anti-incumbency could be a factor visible in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, it is not seen in Kerala and Assam, mainly due to the lack of an alternative.
In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is in a bargaining mood for more seats after realising that the DMK is on the defensive. But the main issue is whether the DMK agrees to share power with the Congress after the polls. The Congress has been out of power in Tamil Nadu since 1967.
The DMK has already completed seat-sharing talks with minor allies like PMK, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, IUML and Moovendar Munnetra Kazhagam. This could affect the Congress’ bargaining for more seats with the DMK. Finally, this issue has to be resolved by chief minister M. Karunanidhi and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, they said. Union minister and AICC general secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad is in charge of the party affairs in Tamil Nadu.
The scene in West Bengal is totally different as the Congress is not in a bargaining position while its senior ally, the Trinamul Congress, is working on a mahajot (grand alliance) to end the over-three-decade Red rule in the state.
Trinamul chief and railway minister Mamata Banerjee gave clear indication of her party’s willingness to share power with the Congress after the polls a few days ago.
“After all they (Congress) are our ally. I am also a Congress product,” she said. But she is tight-lipped whether the Trinamul will leave a deputy chief minister’s post for the Congress to share power on the Maharashtra formula. Ms Banerjee has already made it clear that the list of her party candidates for the Assembly elections is ready.