DMK pulls out, but keeps comeback window open

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Peeved over the Congress’ growing demands in sharing of seats for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, the ruling DMK on Saturday announced that it will pull out its ministers from the UPA government and extend issue-based outside support.
The DMK has two Cabinet ministers, Dayanidhi Maran and M.K. Alagiri, and four ministers of state at the Centre. They will personally hand over their resignations to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday. The DMK has 18 MPs in the Lok Sabha.
Tamil Nadu chief minister M. Karunanidhi, who has accused the Congress of being unfair to squeeze out more seats, blamed the Congress for creating “new problems” in seat-sharing. His party was “compelled to suspect” that the Congress was finding excuses to leave the alliance. “Neither the DMK leadership nor I have ever faced such conditions so far in the previous elections,” he said after presiding over the DMK high-level committee at the party headquarters in the evening.
“The DMK feels that the Congress, by making unreasonable conditions — right to choose their seats and scaling up the demand to 63 — clearly show that they do not want to continue in the alliance or do not like us. Neither the DMK leadership nor I have ever faced such conditions in the previous polls,” the DMK committee resolution said.
The pressure tactics between the two parties has created political uncertainty at the Centre. While Congress managers remained tight-lipped on the DMK’s stern message rejecting the Congress’ demand of 63 seats, the bitterness could damage ties both at the state and the Centre.
Congress’ crisis managers are said to have undertaken a damage control exercise, but if one goes by the statements of DMK leaders, they speak more than just seat-sharing.
Reports from Chennai said that the DMK indicated an electoral agreement with the Congress could still be worked out if that party directly negotiates with Mr Karunanidhi.
DMK sources said such an agreement could be possible, but the Congress demand should be pegged at the maximum of seats and not more than that.
After the DMK high-level committee meeting in Chennai, senior party leader T.R. Baalu indicated his party could review its decision if the Congress relents on seats.
He said the DMK’s six ministers will hand over their resignations only after a meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and that there is no move to fax them right away.
“Definitely, we will have a discussion if they (Congress) reconsider. If the Congress agrees to 60 seats we will reconsider our decision,” Mr Baalu told reporters.
The DMK communicated its decision to Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary Ahmed Patel and defence minister A.K. Antony.
In New Delhi, Congress spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi was guarded on the development, keeping alive hopes of a settlement. “There is no need to comment on it now. This (has happened) in the middle of negotiations and unnecessary press comments will muddy the waters,” was the refrain.
Indicating that the party has been caught off-guard, a senior party functionary who did not wish to be identified said, “We are not going to react until the DMK officially communicates the decision to us.”
The Congress’ strategy to get more seats from the DMK after realising that the latter is on the defensive on the 2G spectrum scam could be counter-productive if one goes by the language of the DMK resolution.
Elaborating on the conditions put forth by the Congress during the negotiations, Mr Karunanidhi said the DMK’s offer to the Congress started from 48 (the number the Congress contested in 2006) and settled at 60. “After agreeing to 60 seats, they insisted that the names of the constituencies would also be part of the agreement. Instead of identifying the constituencies during our talks, they demanded that the Congress be given the seats of their choice. It shocked us,” he said.
He said AICC general secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad, who came for talks, had told from Delhi that the Congress would sign the deal if it was allotted 60 seats. “We agreed to it. When we were waiting for his arrival to sign the agreement, the Congress scaled up its demand to 63,” he said.
If insiders are to be believed, senior party leaders, like Mr Pranab Mukherjee, could talk to Mr Karunanidhi to clear the air, but there was no indication till late Saturday night whether the Congress was sending any leader to Tamil Nadu to salvage the situation.
The NCP, meanwhile, appealed to the DMK to continue its support to the UPA. Party general secretary D.P. Tripathi said: “Our main concern is to strengthen the UPA and there should be no attempt to weaken the alliance.” Noting that it does not see any danger to the alliance, Mr Tripathi said: “At any time of crisis, we are firmly behind Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.”
The main Opposition BJP said it was closely watching the developments and maintained that it was “another blow” to the PM’s dispensation which has been facing serious charges of corruption.
“The Congress, which is already reeling under incessant and severe charges of corruption, seemingly faces another blow with the DMK threatening to part ways,” BJP spokesperson Rajiv Pratap Rudy said.
The DMK is the first ally of the Congress-led UPA to pull out of the ruling coalition, which is in no danger of losing majority at the Centre. With 18 members in the Lok Sabha, the DMK is the third-largest constituent of the UPA after the Congress and the Trinamul Congress.
While the Congress has 207 members, the Trinamul Congress is 19-member-strong. The other constituents of the UPA are NCP (9), National Conference (3), IUML (2) and JVM and VCK (1 each). Without the DMK, the strength of the UPA comes down to 242 from 260. The magic number for simple majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha is 272.
The Congress-led coalition has a cushion available in the form of several parties, like the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, which provide outside support. The SP has 22 members and the BSP 21. Ms Jaya Prada is an expelled member of the SP and is seen as a member supporting the UPA. Besides, the four-member RJD and three-member JD-S are also outside supporters.
With the outside support of these parties, the strength of the Congress-led UPA minus the DMK stands at 311, well past 272.
The DMK and the Congress were allies for the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections in 1980 and again for the Assembly polls in 2006. They were together for the LS polls in 2004 and 2009.