It will be rash to suggest that the DMK and the Congress have given the AIADMK a bye in the coming Tamil Nadu Assembly polls through their recent postures in brinkmanship, but the more reflective elements in the two parties may find it hard to shrug off the feeling that they have conceded own goals on election eve that were hardly warranted by the run of play.
The image of the two parties had already suffered after the 2G scandal erupted. The DMK’s “doer” reputation could hardly escape unscathed in spite of the party’s political campaign that former communications minister A. Raja was targeted as he was a dalit. It is therefore puzzling to see why DMK supremo and Tamil Nadu chief minister M. Karunanidhi chose to play hardball over seat negotiations and go public about it. DMK ministers are due to quit the Union Cabinet on Monday and the party’s support to UPA-2 is now to be on merits — on a case-by-case basis. A past master at politics, the DMK boss would be aware his retaliatory knock would not bring down the UPA-2 government. Indeed, even if the DMK were to withdraw support, there is no imminent threat of the Manmohan Singh government falling. There is no alternative available in the existing Parliament to take over the reins if the government falls. In any case, several parties are likely to offer the UPA a helping hand if there is any chance of a government collapse due to reasons of political arithmetic.
If the DMK finally does follow through with its threat and its ministers indeed resign on Monday, it should logically mean that the party has as good as left the UPA. (To offer the government “outside support”, a party need not be in the ruling coalition, as the case of the RJD, SP and BSP shows.) The harsh anti-Congress language used in the DMK’s resolution announcing its plan to leave the UPA-2 government, and a reference in it to Congress president Sonia Gandhi as well, should ordinarily suggest that the DMK does not any more see its fate tied to that of the Congress in the Assembly polls. There is not much wriggle room left for it to resume seat-sharing talks as though nothing has happened. In the event it would be unrealistic of the Congress to entertain hopes in that direction. The way events have unfolded, it is clear the DMK’s disenchantment with the Congress began with the 2G case coming out in the open and the subsequent easing out of Mr Raja from the Cabinet. Being an entirely power-oriented and family hierarchy-based party, it found itself unable to appreciate that the Prime Minister had no choice but to bow before the broad laws of democratic polity once the corruption-related scandal broke and then to submit Mr Raja to the scrutiny of the law. The political error on the part of the Congress was to try to take advantage of the DMK’s discomfiture and squeeze it for more seats to contest in Tamil Nadu. Plausibly, the DMK chose to go public with its discomfort with continuing the relationship with the Congress as it fears the CBI might probe individuals close to Mr Karunanidhi in the 2G affair. If the relationship is broken now, the party will be able to make the pseudo-political argument that it is under fire on account of its rejection of the Congress. At any rate, in this age of coalition politics in India, the DMK-Congress saga will be a reminder that coalition dharma cannot conceivably operate if a criminal breach of the law occurs and the public exchequer is sought to be defrauded.