The powerful tsunami that struck the north-eastern Japanese coastal city of Sendai on Friday is a mega-disaster, the echo of which can reverberate around the world. This is not only on account of the fact that Japan is one of the world’s most powerful economies and a technology giant, a country whose slowing down can impact the
world in myriad negative ways that await calculation. Not only Japan but the international community will also be pondering with anxiety the radiation leak from two of Japan’s nuclear power plants at Daiichi and Daini, about 150 miles north of Tokyo. Daiichi has also reported an explosion. Officially, the quantities of radiation that have dispersed are described as modest, not large enough to threaten health. However, we can only be assured of the accuracy of such an estimate when experts have had time to look at more information. Right now it is too soon after the event to offer a firm prognosis. The after-shocks of the massive sea-bed tremblor — reported to be 8.9 on the Richter scale, making it one of the most intense ever recorded — continued on Saturday. The impressive Japanese economy has virtually shut down and infrastructure has been badly hit. Should nature’s fury now cause rain, and radiation finds a way to flow into the vast expanse of the Pacific, it is possible that it will get washed away and be diluted. On the other hand, if it mixes with water sources within the country, the outcome can be unpredictable. For the moment, the good news is that on available evidence the levels of radiation leak are said to be less than that occurred in the Three Mile Island accident in the US.
There is every chance that the effect of the tsunami on the nuclear power plants can influence the discourse on nuclear politics worldwide. As a society, Japan has spent billions of dollars to build anti-earthquake safeguards into all its structures, including nuclear power plants. Citizens from an early age have been trained to respond appropriately to earthquakes since the country lies in a highly seismic zone. Japan also has the technological wherewithal to deal with even fairly extensive damage. Many countries, including India, that have nuclear power plants and aspire to build more, lack such a rapid response system. The post-tsunami nuclear damage in Japan is thus likely to impact the international nuclear paradigm. Discussion in the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, and the various clubs of nuclear materials providers, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group, can also be drawn into brain-storming sessions after the tsunami, though it is early to say that the international community will quit placing faith in nuclear power generation.
The tsunami struck away from Japan’s industrial heartland. This has led some to think that the economic blow to Japan, and the world, can be softened. As in the case of the nuclear question, however, it is too early for a careful and balanced estimate. Japan is a leading exporter of motor cars, electronic goods, and sophisticated machinery. It is also a leading consumer of petroleum, and an important provider of aid to the poorer countries. As such, severe dislocations in its economy are apt to have far-reaching effects, domestically and internationally. All things considered, Tokyo has coped admirably with what might easily be the worst crisis it has faced since Hiroshima and Nagasaki 66 years ago. In its place, another country might have been on its knees within hours in the face of such a crippling event. The people of Japan have shown their resilience when confronted with a tragedy of incalculable magnitude. The world needs to be ready with any assistance that is called for. The Indian leadership too must extend Tokyo any help it can render.