Unlike the previous polls, the voters of Tamil Nadu are left only with two choices in the 2011 Assembly polls: vote for freebies and welfare schemes or vote against 2G scam and family rule besides price rise.
Again, for the first time, the voters will get divided sharply on the lines of rural and urban while casting their franchise. While the 2G scam has made an impact on the urban voters, freebies seem to hold sway over the rural people to a certain extent.
Understanding the division of voters and the prevailing trend in voting pattern, the ruling DMK has adamantly retained the rural seats, which it presumes would be winnable, and parted with urban seats, where the Rs 1.76 lakh crore 2G spectrum scam issue has deeply penetrated into the middle-class mindset, to its allies, especially the Congress.
Chennai-based political analyst Arunan says, “For the urbanites, freebies are not of any importance for the enormity of the spectrum scam has deeply set in their minds. Had the opposition alone charged the DMK with mega corruption, people would have considered it a political game. In this case, ally Congress accuses the DMK, and the CBI sends a former minister to prison.” There remains a socio-economic group that has been enjoying freebies. The DMK government had ensured through the collectors that all its welfare measures, especially old age pension, marriage assistance, health insurance and house scheme, reached the rural beneficiaries.
Says Mr R. Prabhakar, a Tamil professor in Madurai, “Though the middle and upper middle-class will show their anger over telecom swindle, it will certainly not bring about a wave among the BPL families and lower-income groups in the rural pockets.”
Affected by the monopoly of DMK’s first family in some businesses, including cinema, businessmen say it has created a sort of disenchantment among them. “Though the fact that a few cinema production firms have been crippled will not trickle down to the ballot boxes; the ‘Kaavalan’ issue exposed the CM family’s vile grip over Kollywood,” Mr Arunan opines.
Analysing the pros and cons, the Dravidian parties have framed a clear campaign formula. The ruling DMK will go to the people seeking votes for its freebies and welfare schemes, while the opposition AIADMK is gearing up to bank its campaign on the 2G scam and family monopoly.