Kerala has witnessed something unusual. Of all people, chief minister V.S. Achuthanandan has been denied permission by the CPI(M) state committee to be a candidate in the forthcoming Assembly election. The recommendation is not likely to make any sense to the ordinary voter in the state. It is noteworthy that it was made in the presence of party general secretary Prakash Karat and politburo member S. Ramachandran Pillai. This is bound to strengthen the feeling that it had the sanction of the top leadership.
Technically, the CPI(M) has not yet made a formal announcement on keeping Mr Achuthanandan out. Perhaps that will happen after the state committee’s view has run the gauntlet of its district committees. Even so, considerable damage may have been done to the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front on the eve of the Assembly election. The Marxists’ LDF allies cannot be amused.
The chief minister’s sturdy record of probity and his determination to go after corruption, even when perpetrated by those in his own party, has brightened his image considerably among ordinary people in Kerala. Five years ago, when he was swept into office after being initially denied his party’s nomination, which was eventually secured under popular pressure, he was seen as an antediluvian figure. Many felt Mr Achuthanandan might not be the right man to lead the state in the context of an economy which leans toward market-based solutions. In some measure, the critics have been forced to do a rethink. While Kerala has been slow to attract investment (for example, it took five years for the SmartCity Kochi agreement to come through), the state’s public sector undertakings have turned the corner. Mr Achuthanandan has also evinced an interest in promoting the information technology sector and the environment.
Kerala’s voting pattern has for long been cyclical, with the LDF and the Congress-led United Democratic Front being elected alternately every five years. It is, therefore, possible that the LDF may have been worsted by the UDF this time around even with V.S. Achuthanandan leading the Left’s campaign. Many, however, felt that the CM had earned enough goodwill, especially outside his own party, that might have enabled him to put up a good show. After the step so tellingly indicated by his party’s leadership, Mr Achuthanandan’s moves will no doubt be watched with interest by supporters and opponents alike.
The CPI(M) in Kerala is notoriously faction-ridden. This too is a factor that an election machine can do without. Ironically, both the chief minister and his bête noire, Pinarayi Vijayan, the state party chief, have been kept out of the Assembly stakes, though for different reasons. Mr Achuthanandan was famously known to bend party discipline to pursue his own agenda, and Mr Vijayan labours under a chargesheet in the Lavalin case. It is not common for senior Communists to attract charges of corruption. Whether such a denouement confers an automatic advantage on the Congress and its UDF partners can only be speculated on at this stage, although Congress and UDF leader Oomen Chandy enjoys a lot of personal credibility. The Congress and its partners have other problems though. A senior Congressman and former minister has landed in jail on corruption charges. A prominent figure from a UDF party is in trouble owing to a sex scandal.
Less than a month remains for the election, and the Kerala electorate is likely to have a lot of material coming its way to judge the contestants in a battle which might have more than its normal share of drama. It is also possible that voters might factor in developments at the Centre when they weigh the options before them on election day.