The forthcoming Assembly election in West Bengal — to be held in as many as six stages to permit the security forces to be deployed effectively to deter troublesome elements — is unusual for two key reasons. Not for a long time has there been a direct clash in the state between two political fronts, one led by the CPI(M) and the other by the Trinamul Congress. No bit players this time round — the minor players are not really in the race. The original Congress had split into two, and the two formations have come together in this election for the first time following a clear understanding.
It is this which makes the CPI(M) uneasy. If there were other anti-Left parties around that existed outside the Congress-Trinamul nexus, the ruling front is unlikely to have been nervous about the outcome.
The second noteworthy feature of the April-May Assembly elections is that it throws up the likelihood of the CPI(M) being voted out simultaneously in its twin citadels of West Bengal and Kerala (excluding tiny Tripura from this analysis). The Left has not relinquished power in Kolkata for well over three decades. The expectation in many quarters that it may be going out in this election is reinforced by the fact that the anti-Left vote won’t get split this time. (In Kerala, if the standard cyclical pattern over decades holds good, the CPI(M) may be on the way to relinquishing power.) If, however, the Left is able to beat the odds and surprise its opponents (in either of its strongholds), it may be expected to be on an ideological roll despite its relatively modest presence in Parliament. This can impact the political climate in the country. If not, a rightward shift in the country as a whole could be on the cards, beginning with a marked market-oriented thrust in economic deliberations all around, not just at the Centre. Also, a setback to the Left in its strongholds is apt to throw it into a measure of organisational confusion. Therefore, particularly in West Bengal, the Left may be expected to offer the Opposition a “do or die” battle. The challenge to the Election Commission on this count is obvious. The CPI(M)’s opponents too are not likely to leave any bases uncovered, and there is a big question mark on what role might be played by the Maoists, who not too long ago went on a spree of violence in many districts.
Clearly, the stakes are high in the coming election, particularly in West Bengal. A reflection of this is the radical line the Left Front has taken in its choice of candidates. As many as nine sitting ministers were denied tickets and over half of its nominations have gone to newcomers. The Left is clearly out to impress the electorate with a “new look” approach. The challenge to it will lie especially in the countryside. It is yet to be seen if it can keep the dividend it earned in three decades with its land-to-the tiller approach and its emphasis on the cooperative movement in the state.
The Congress-Trinamul Congress combine looked like rocking on the question of seat-sharing. In the end, however, the national party backed off for it did not want to give the electorate the impression that it was giving the Left space by fighting with its regional partner, which appears to be in a strong position. The Congress was obviously also mindful of the potential of Trinamul Congress chief Mamata Banerjee unsettling the UPA-2 government at the Centre if it did not play ball. All things considered, the West Bengal electorate will make history one way or the other. Observers will hope that history be made peacefully.