It would ordinarily be assumed that a country such as Afghanistan would always be on the radar screen of our government, our politicians and our media since we have spent more money in that country than in any other in recent years, and we probably have more to lose than any other country if the Taliban return to power in Kabul
by either militarily defeating the Hamid Karzai regime or striking a favourable deal with it with Pakistan’s help. This is, however, not the case, although for some months there have been signs of oncoming change in Afghanistan.
While Pakistan has had an inimical equation with Afghanistan, there is suddenly an urgency on Islamabad’s part to persuade Kabul that the two can work together. Pakistan only asks that Kabul should dilute ties with India. Such an invitation might appeal to Afghanistan for two reasons. The United States and its European allies fighting in Afghanistan have increasingly come to believe that the war is just not worth the trouble. This summer, a partial withdrawal of US forces fighting the Taliban is thought to be on the cards, in line with political commitments made by President Barack Obama. Given these circumstances, the American line on Afghanistan appears to be changing perceptibly. From a stout rejection of any political and ideological accommodation of the Taliban leadership (which Islamabad urges) that hides inside Pakistan — seen vividly at the London Conference just over a year ago — Washington is now signalling it may not be averse to a patchup between the Kabul government and the Taliban, with Islamabad playing the midwife. The second key reason that could move Kabul in the direction Pakistan desires is that Mr Karzai has no reason to believe India will play a proactive role to help maintain stability in Afghanistan when the Americans leave. Going a step further, it can also be said that the Afghan leader, and that country’s political class, regard India as a weak state, especially when it comes to taking steps that might displease Pakistan, which of course will be the case if New Delhi extends Kabul a strong helping hand when the Americans leave.
Washington has just announced that Ryan Crocker, a US foreign service officer who earlier served with distinction as ambassador to Pakistan, will be pulled out of retirement and made the next US ambassador to Kabul. This indicates a transition in broad US policy, and seeks to emphasise that Washington is now possibly looking for a transformation of the Afghan state to incorporate a Taliban presence, and naturally to keep Islamabad on its right side as this major shift occurs. Gen. David Petraeus, commander of US and Nato forces in Afghanistan, is to be withdrawn in a few months and will take charge of the CIA as its new director. The Indian thinking — at a time of possibly game-changing events — appears to be anybody’s guess. There has been little clarity on New Delhi’s thinking in these changing circumstances. Unofficial indications are that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s proposed visit to Afghanistan might not take place in the near future. This possibly suggests we are not sure of President Karzai’s next moves. The new US Af-Pak special envoy, Marc Grossman, has just visited India, but the government has fought shy of disclosing any information about discussions with him. The Prime Minister’s task is not rendered any easier as far-reaching developments in the context of Afghanistan — from where Pakistan wants India out — are taking shape even as Dr Singh has taken an initiative to repair ties with Islamabad. Does this possibly mean a reluctant Indian willingness to backtrack in Afghanistan?