Decode the signs

The ongoing state election has not been getting high TRPs at the national level. The state polls are being viewed as strictly local events while the centre of attention remains riveted on the high political drama being played out in the national capital. Yet, the outcome of the state polls, far from being of limited consequence, could affect several significant political coefficients in this country.

The message voters send in the April-May state elections is sure to be studied meticulously by all political parties. For, all indications suggest that the times are indeed changing. The huge and spontaneous reaction to the anti-corruption crusade is just one pointer, there are many other unreported ones coming in from the states that suggest the stirrings of subterranean resentment.
A proper reading of the state results will give a good indication of the extent of the shift in political behaviour.
The electoral message, however, is unlikely to be equivocal or as straight as a commercial advertisement; it will necessarily be complex given that each of the four states and one Union Territory where elections have or are being held has a different set of conditions.
To decode the electoral message from all the states with one key would therefore be a mistake.
In Kerala, for instance, electoral dynamics over the last two decades have largely been predictable, with the anti-incumbency vote proving decisive in each election. The state’s political scene is completely dominated by two alliances: the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The two fronts have usually alternated in forming the government. The question today is whether the familiar pattern of the past will be repeated.
The incumbent chief minister, veteran CPI(M) leader V.S. Achuthanandan, has a good and clean record. He has campaigned, among other things, against the Congress Party’s dismal governance and corruption at the Centre, but his party is itself tainted by corruption charges against some senior leaders. The principal Congress campaigner, defence minister A.K. Antony, who has been the chief minister thrice in the past, has an equally clean, if ineffectual, record. In other words, Kerala has two clean leaders vying against each other, both encumbered by poor party images.
The electoral message in Kerala will predictably be complicated. However, if for any reason the UDF cannot oust the LDF, then it would signal a huge setback for the Congress and an equally great victory for Mr Achuthanandan. The impact of such an outcome on the Congress at the Centre would be significant.
In Tamil Nadu, three scenarios are possible: A Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-Congress alliance victory, an All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) alliance victory with a small margin, and an AIADMK victory with a huge margin. The effects of each outcome would be very different.
A DMK-Congress victory would be astounding and would almost certainly dilute, if not completely spike, the ongoing anti-corruption drive at the Centre. The defeat of the ruling combine with a small margin would still be acceptable but an electoral rout will profoundly rattle the United Progressive Alliance coalition at the Centre and almost certainly bring about unpredictable changes in New Delhi’s corridors of power.
In Assam, Tarun Gogoi of the Congress, who has been the chief minister for two terms since 2001, has tried to provide good and relatively clean governance. He has, however, not managed to resolve the sharp ethnic and communal issues that have bedevilled the state for some decades now. These faultlines continue to contribute to high levels of political instability in Assam. The Bodos, represented to a large extent by the Bodo People’s Front, and the state’s Muslims represented by the All-India United Democratic Front have become the two crucial components of the state’s polity and they will determine the nature of the next coalition in Guwahati. It would not be a surprise, however, if the Asom Gana Parishad-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance ultimately fails to form a government.
In Bengal, the Congress has long been reduced to a bit player although it retains a traditional support base spread across the state. Without this chunk of votes, the Trinamul Congress led by Mamata Banerjee has little chance of defeating the Marxists. Yet, there can be no denying that she is the star in the state’s election scenario and is seen as a valiant daughter of the soil taking on an entrenched, increasingly unresponsive Marxist behemoth.
Ms Banerjee’s alliance with the Congress, however, can at best be described as uneasy. While she wants to capture the entire Congress support base, the Congress does not want her to become a truly independent and dominant political force in the state.
The two parties are held together by expediency and the poll results will tell if this alliance will last. If the Congress cannot win a decent number of seats even after campaigning by the Prime Minister and party president, then Ms Banerjee will have a strong motive to discard or marginalise the Congress at some stage in the future.
No elections are without consequence, this one less so because it could bring about significant shifts in the balance of power.
The poll results will tell if the increasingly complex political alliances are working and it will also indicate the long-term fortunes of many a state leader. The play of these two factors could result in some much-required churning at the national level.

Indranil Banerjie is an independent security and political risk consultant