IMD to unravel cyclone mystery

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India is launching a major experiment to unravel meteorological mysteries that cause violent cyclones in the Bay of Bengal.

The Forecast Demonstration Experiment aims to study factors that contribute to the formation of cyclones that strike the country’s east coast.

The study procedure has been adopted with inputs from scientists of US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the experiment will be done this November during the height of cyclonic activity in the BoB.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is also in talks with the NOAA to lease their aircraft for the study.

“We don’t have any aircraft that can fly into the eye of a storm to measure its intensity,” Dr P.V. Joseph, former IMD director and a member of the science committee, told Deccan Chronicle. “But NOAA has not given a confirmation.”

The IMD is also in talks with some other countries which operate smaller hurricane hunters, he added.
The prime objective is to create a forecast model that predicts the path and intensity of a cyclone that will help serve an advance warning to east coast mainly Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Five of the six cyclones that wreak havoc on Indian coasts originate in BoB. The IMD is planning to install a system like one that US has adopted for advanced alert on an impending threat.

“But US won’t be part of this study,” said the IMD director general, Mr Ajit Tyagi. “We are taking advice and might hire their aircraft. Otherwise it will be a totally IMD-run experiment.”

“We need to build capacity to predict cyclones,” he added. “This study will give us crucial inputs needed for a reliable model.”

Admitting that IMD badly needed reconnaissance aircraft to perfect its data gathering, Dr Tyagi said formalities to buy two were being completed. “We will soon acquire them,” he said.

“We are looking at small and big aircraft that suit our purposes.” Sources said IMD was considering US’ Lockheed Martin CJ 130 and that initial talks have been completed to buy one.