The Monday morning of May 23, 2011, began with two events making hot news and altering the lead for this third serial article three weeks after Osama bin Laden’s killing. Significantly, both these developments are closely related to the US special forces eliminating Laden and the widening politico-military rift between the US and Pakistan.
The deadly attack on Karachi’s heavily guarded Pakistan Navy shore base PNS Mehran, claimed by Tehreeq-e-Taliban Pakistan to avenge Laden’s killing, yet again caught Pakistan military with its pants down. The well-planned attack by a small and specially trained team of six terrorists, executed with sophisticated weapons and well-focused in killing 10 Pakistan Navy personnel, injuring many more and destroying two prized PC-3 Orion “spy” aircraft, should ring a sharp alert not only for Pakistan, but also India, the US and other coalition countries.
While this is not the first attack by Pakistani terrorists on Pakistan’s top military bases, including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) headquarters, PNS Mehran being selected as a target is significant.
If it is true that Mullah Omar, known to be close to Laden, has been killed, that too soon after and also like the latter, following a decade-long manhunt with the killers not yet identified, it can very possibly mean he too was killed by American troops or operatives with or without the Pakistan Army being in the loop /supporting such an operation, or by remote-controlled bombing. Even if he has not been killed, the propaganda itself can be considered as very calculated to confuse and confound. And if the news report about Mullah Omar being killed while he was being moved from Quetta to North Waziristan by former ISI chief Lt. General Hamid Gul is true, then it only further exposes and humiliates the ISI.
These two incidents occurring during Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) operative Tahawwur Hussain Rana’s trial in Chicago for his role in the 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai and his testimony giving more clues confirming earlier suspected links between this Pakistani terrorist group and the ISI is only going to rile the Pakistan Army’s leadership further.
This again means that India and the US must be very wary.
Following the long and farcical session in the Pakistan’s Parliament post-Op Geronimo and both Kayani and Pasha making uncalled for statements threatening India, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called a meeting with the defence minister, three armed forces chiefs, national security adviser and the defence secretary. At this meeting reportedly, the armed forces’ preparedness to meet any security challenge that may be posed by Pakistani terrorist networks in the region and conventional threats from Pakistan’s armed forces came up for review. Also discussed was the presence of an almost division strength of Chinese military personnel in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in the guise of engineering workers and the threat posed by China to the security of Jammu and Kashmir. The Prime Minister was briefed on the overall security measures and the general preparedness of the defence forces.
The China factor was further heightened by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s official and Pasha’s sudden and secret visit to China immediately after Op Geronimo and China stating that the international community “must respect” Pakistan’s sovereignty, tacitly confirms reports that it has asked the US not to violate Islamabad’s territorial integrity following the killing of Osama bin Laden.
Asked about reports that China has asked the US during its recently concluded strategic dialogue with Washington to respect Pakistan’s sovereignty as Islamabad came under heavy pressure after Bin Laden’s killing, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu reportedly told the media that “sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan must be respected.” Then came the most ironic claim: “We believe that Pakistan has made great contribution to international counter-terrorism efforts, as well as huge sacrifices. The international community should understand and support Pakistan’s efforts to restore national stability and develop its economy,” she said.
According to Pakistan’s state-run news agency, Mr Gilani told Pakistan media here on Monday night after his meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that “China supported Pakistan’s cause on its own”. Mr Gilani said the Chinese conveyed a clear message to the US that “there should be no harm to the Pakistani sovereignty and the US should understand and appreciate concerns of Pakistan.” Also, China is reported to have asked the US to “work with Pakistan in improving their bilateral relations in view of the present scenario… that Pakistan should be helped and its honour should be upheld keeping in view its sacrifices in war on terror”. Mr Gilani also quoted Mr Wen as saying that Pakistan faced challenges in the wake of killing of Bin Laden and the Chinese leadership was categorical in supporting Pakistan’s stance as well as its concerns over national honour and sovereignty. A Pakistani daily quoted diplomatic sources as saying that China has “warned in unequivocal terms that any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China”. The warning was formally conveyed by the Chinese foreign minister at last week’s China-US strategic dialogue and economic talks in Washington, it said. Mr Gilani reiterated Pakistan’s support for its policy of “One China” and said his country fully supports China on the issues of Taiwan and Tibet.
Whereas earlier the Chinese used to cite these phrases to counter the Indian position in South Asia, it appears now it is the USs turn to face the Chinese music — despite more than $20 billion in aid that the US contributed to Pakistan in the last decade.
Mr Jiang’s statement that China “will unswervingly continue to support Pakistan’s efforts to fight terrorism” may also have much to do with the fact that China needs Pakistan’s and the Taliban’s support to control Uighur protests in the north-western region of Xinjiang.
While Mr Jiang during her briefing skirted questions about Pakistan-China signing new defence agreements, the fact remains that China has provided Pakistan with a very substantial package, which has been enhanced during this visit. Speaking to this daily, Srikanth Kondapalli, professor in Chinese studies at JNU, informed that the earlier consignment included JF-17 fighters (70 out of 250 already delivered), four F-22 P frigates (three already delivered), six submarines, early warning aircraft and other ground forces equipment. “More such projects have been committed during this visit like the technical support by Chinese scientists at Pakistan’s Fatehganj missile production factory. Some Chinese retired naval officers and others have also demanded recently that China should set up military facilities in Pakistan. After the Chinese assistance to the Chashma III and IV nuclear power plants were cleared by the International Atomic Energy Agency in March this year (as a counter to the US-India 123 agreement), and as moves towards the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty are being made, the recent news about substantial increases in Pakistan’s capability to produce nuclear warheads, is not surprising,” said Mr Kondapalli.
An American daily reported that regarding the massive financial and arms aid US has been providing to Pakistan as expenses to fight the Al Qaeda and other terrorists along the Afghanistan border, there is, not surprisingly, a billing dispute, with Washington rejecting over 40 per cent of the claims submitted by Islamabad. Some US officials also fear that some of the aid is being diverted to the border with India, secret diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks too showed that the US officials were taken aback by Pakistani claims as early as 2006, including a $26-million charge for barbed wire and pickets, and for almost $70 million in radar maintenance, “although there is no enemy air threat related to the war on terror.” It remains to be seen, whether the US will review its aid policy to Pakistan.
Addressing the Unified Commanders Conference in South Block, shortly after Dr Manmohan Singh’s meeting mentioned, defence minister A.K. Antony said that ripples of Osama bin Laden’s elimination will have wide ranging impact on India’s strategic neighbourhood and asked the top brass of the Army, Navy and the Air Force to continuously assess the security situation and remain prepared for any eventualities. Describing the US operations in Pakistan as “a watershed in the global war on terror,” he said the event has “internationally stamped” Pakistan’s position as the core of terrorist activities in the region.
Mr Antony’s directive to the services chiefs and the various installations he has inaugurated to enhance post-26/11 coastal security, must now get meaningfully backed by political will to ensure that: firstly, all the inter-ministry and inter-departmental integration is implemented with the required notification; secondly, all necessary procurements are in place; and thirdly, that there is no hesitation in giving a befitting response against any terrorist attack, the possibility of which has greatly increased.
Pakistan’s military, particularly Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and ISI chief Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, already smarting from the humiliation of the success of Op Geronimo, will no doubt be very much more so now with the attack on PNS Mehran and disclosures by Dawood Gilani, alias David Coleman Headley, about ISI’s direct involvement. Given Pakistan’s collective military psyche on India and Indian Army, its strong connection with/support of the LeT and the mood both are in, India must now all the more watch out on its long land borders, coastline and airspace and all states, where the LeT already has its moles and sleepers. All Western coastal states, particularly those with strategic assets located close to the sea, must have effective surveillance and reaction capability — not only military but the civil and coastal police too.