After humbling the DMK at the hustings recently, AIADMK supremo and Tamil Nadu chief minister J. Jayalalithaa has a few worries, and also some political points to make. Within weeks of her sweeping victory in the Assembly election, she arrived in New Delhi with her customary flair, and made blunt observations against Union home minister P. Chidambaram.
But she did not omit to press demands on the Centre for significant doses of assistance on the power front for her state, as well as for some pet projects such as a monorail for Chennai and free computers for students (a campaign promise made to outdo the DMK in offering freebies). These are of direct concern to the CM. It is openly acknowledged in Chennai, for instance, that Tamil Nadu’s poor power situation contributed not a little to DMK patriarch M. Karunanidhi’s political downfall, although nothing perhaps can outweigh the impact of the 2G spectrum scam. The AIADMK chief is therefore expected not to antagonise the UPA-2 government unnecessarily, although this is unlikely to deter her from continuing to embarrass the DMK element in the ruling alliance, or for that matter pro-DMK elements in the Tamil Nadu Congress such as Mr Chidambaram.
Incoming chief ministers are known to urge the Centre to bestow favours on them. In this respect, the AIADMK leader has some advantages. She does not belong to an Opposition alliance such as the NDA (although it is still recalled by some that she had attended Narendra Modi’s swearing-in in Gujarat and had not opposed the BJP’s Ayodhya stance after the Babri Masjid demolition), or what might be loosely called the Third Front string of parties. To that extent, Ms Jayalalithaa could be open to giving support to the UPA. But this is hardly an open and shut case. Much will depend on the extent to which the Centre offers her financial assistance to rebuild her base as CM. To some degree, the fate of DMK ministers and other leaders in the courts will also help decide the dynamics of ties between the Congress and Tamil parties. The AIADMK chief is all too aware of this. Therefore, for now, she may be expected to bide her time before making any open moves favouring a political alliance with the Congress. But it is evident that the atmospherics created by both sides during Ms Jayalalithaa’s New Delhi visit will be savoured by many in both parties, much to the discomfiture of the DMK and its supporters in the Congress.
It would be premature for the Congress to give signs of jettisoning the DMK at this stage. This would only enhance the AIADMK’s leverage over the Congress. In the worst-case scenario, the Congress might end up losing the support of 18 DMK MPs and not gain the AIADMK bloc of nine. In the best situation for UPA-2, if court pronouncements begin to hit the DMK camp hard, the DMK can be exchanged for the AIADMK. That would call for softening up Ms Jayalalithaa by meeting her demands for assistance to a significant degree. But all this is in the future. For now, the AIADMK may bargain for just a bit of brinkmanship. Attacking Mr Chidambaram could be a part of this. After all, she can’t expect an invitation to the UPA parlour if she demands the ouster of its home minister, at least not at the present stage. As we get closer to the next general election in 2014, the political ground may well have shifted in Tamil Nadu and New Delhi, depending on how governments are faring in both locations. So, perhaps in the short term, no real changes in power equations are on the cards. But nothing stops parties from pre-positioning themselves for the next stage.