The winner in the keenly-contested Jamshedpur Lok Sabha bypoll in Jharkhand, slated for Friday, could be decided by which way three crucial components of the constituency’s 13.97 lakh voters, the Kurmi community, Muslims and Maoists, swing.
For Jamshedpur’s eclectically assorted electorate, which has the tribal population and various language groups as key members, the latest election has come as sort of a challenge due to the sheer burst of ambition among political parties to win the prestigious seat. With as many as 20 candidates in the fray and even allies both in the ruling combine and Opposition alliances contesting against one another, analysts say the ultimate decisive groups are the Kurmi community, Muslims and Maoists.
The Kurmis, also known as Mahtos, having close to two lakh voters, all the parties have been actively working on appeasing the community. While three parties — ruling allies JMM and AJSU, and newcomer Trinamul Congress — have fielded Kurmi candidates Sudhir Mahto, Astik Mahto and Suman Mahto respectively, the others have targeted their campaigns to areas with a Kurmi majority and hope to gain from a division of Kurmi votes among the three candidates from the community.
While the Muslims are considered a significant group second in electoral importance to the Kurmis, no party is sure of their collective support. Despite a division of Muslim votes that looks certain, the Congress and Babulal Marandi’s JVM(P) are said to be likely gainers on the secularism plank in the present context. BJP candidate Dineshanand Goswami, a Brahmin having the upper castes’ support, has as much chance of getting the Muslim votes as the JMM, which is suspected by the community for being in government with the BJP, analysts say. The Maoists and their sympathisers are active in most of the six Assembly segments in the LS constituency. Like during most previous polls, they are expected to influence this bypoll’s outcome. Mindful of their importance, no party or candidate has publicly spoken against extremist violence during the campaigns that ended on Wednesday.