What’s next for Libya?

After 42 years of Col. Muammar Gaddafi’s rule in Libya has virtually ended, the new interim administration in the form of the National Transitional Council (NTC) has immense tasks ahead of it.

Its handicap is, and will remain, the stark fact that, but months of intensive bombing over Libya by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation warplanes under the guise of a UN resolution seeking to protect civilians, the rebels would not have prevailed. There were also supplies of arms from France and Qatar, among other countries, and training and other help from such Gulf nations as the United Arab Emirates. There are no two opinions on the despotic and often bizarre nature of Gaddafi rule, but rather like the “guided democracy” inflicted upon their peoples by more than one military dictator, this is a regime change brought about by external powers, with France and Britain in the lead, with the United States choosing to stay in the background despite its major and continuing military contribution.
Among the many challenges facing the new administration is to seek national reconciliation — the rebel stronghold Benghazi is in the eastern half of the country. And in a nation of tribal affiliations, with Berbers playing a major role in helping take the capital Tripoli, giving the feeling of inclusiveness is vital. Col. Gaddafi still commands the loyalty of his tribe. Second, the NTC is still a rather ad hoc organisation which must be buttressed by inviting other than eastern tribes and professionals who can bring expertise in their areas. Unlike in Egypt, Col. Gaddafi had denuded the country of institutions and ostensibly giving up office, ruled with an iron hand with the assistance of his sons and tribal loyalists. Having lost his compound in Tripoli, he has taken to issuing defiant radio messages and it is symbolically important for the authorities to capture him. They have placed a bounty on his head.
But Libya is fortunate in being sparsely populated in an immense area rich in oil and minerals. Although its oil installations have been partially damaged in the fighting, it should take less than a year to get its daily production of 1.5 million barrels of oil moving again. In the medium term, it can rely on Libyan funds frozen in the West amounting to some $170 billion, according to some estimates, while a group of countries meeting in Qatar has been facilitating immediate grants to help the NTC with such expenses as paying salaries of public sector workers and urgent imports of food and medicines. The composition of the help group is interesting, comprising, among others, the United States, Britain, France, Qatar and Turkey. Besides, Libya has many experts in various fields it can tap; they were forced to leave the country. A sum of $ 1.5 billion of the Gaddafi regime has been unfrozen by the United Nations Security Council.
Depending upon how the NTC performs its arduous tasks, the nationalist pull will come into play sooner, rather than later, and the help of the Western powers can become a liability for seeking to establish legitimacy. If Libyans are savouring the fruits of the Arab Spring, which took half a year of virtual civil war and much bloodshed, they will not be immune to the infection of the strong streak of nationalism, perhaps laced with forms of Islamist tendencies that increasingly prevails in the region. How Libyan rulers will balance their continuing need for Western assistance and expertise with asserting their legitimacy will remain a central dilemma.
The bizarre nature of Col. Gaddafi’s rule and rubbing such important leaders as the King of Saudi Arabia the wrong way were important reasons for the Gulf monarchies and the Arab League providing the West with cover for the intense Nato bombing runs in excess of 7,000 sorties that finally broke the back of Col. Gaddafi’s superior forces. Qatar has also played an important role in giving money and material to Benghazi in keeping with its ambition to play a prominent regional role on the strength of its oil and gas riches. And the state-funded Al Jazeera Arabic television channel has become a mascot for all Arabs seeking more power and freedom for themselves and their countries.
Libya also reminds us that the Arab Spring, which had seemed to end with Tunisia and Egypt in the hard summer, is still green. Libya has been a bloody and long drawn out affair but has in the end brought its people new help, albeit with a push and shove from the West. Yemen is still mired in a civil war, with its President, Abdullah Saleh, convalescing in Saudi Arabia but vowing to return, and tribal loyalties still playing out their deadly power play. Syria, whose people have suffered deeply in the face of their brave and continuing protests being answered by preponderant military force, is facing Western sanctions and a call for President Bashar Assad to step down. Seeing how the resolution on Libya was stretched, Russia and some in the Arab world are reluctant to arm the West with United Nations’ authority to intervene in Syria. Europe, in any case, is counting the cost of its air warfare over Libya in today’s straightened circumstances.
Returning to Libya, what does the future hold for it? The short-term answer can only be ambiguous, given the nature of the problems it faces. A handicap the new dispensation suffers from is the lack of a charismatic leader. The head of the NTC, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, is a former minister who defected early, and, for all his earnestness, lacks charisma. Perhaps returning members of the diaspore will provide a new leader who can sway the people and lead to the beginnings of a modern nation state. The NTC is hoping that it will be able to account for Col. Gaddafi fairly soon because his cult has been promoted so assiduously for so long that a section of Libyans will not feel completely secure until he is gone or safely under lock and key. He and his son Saif, initially wrongly reported to have been arrested, are also wanted on war crime charges by the International Court in The Hague.