Though the BJP is predicting a mid-term general election, it appears far less prepared to come up a winner: this is the assessment of Congress insiders who say the saffron party cannot reach 170 seats in the Lok Sabha on its own.
While the projection of a hardliner as its prime ministerial candidate would weaken the NDA, a moderate would not be able to get votes if the BJP decides to fight the elections under his or her leadership, they felt.
The outcome of the coming UP Assembly elections would indicate which way the wind is blowing and, in that state, the BJP has been leaderless and issueless.
That the BJP smells power once again is evident from the growing number of PM aspirants in the party. It is confident that the issues of inflation and corruption, besides the Telangana state issue in Andhra Pradesh, will help it increase its numbers. But the corruption issue could go against it in Karnataka; in fact, it has punctured the BJP’s good governance card in Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Besides, anti-incumbency could work in Gujarat this time because of CM Narendra Modi’s style of functioning, and, to some extent, in MP and Chhattisgarh.
In Maharashtra, neither the Shiv Sena, nor the BJP, nor the MNS have emerged as an alternative to the ruling Congress-NCP combine. But the NDA could get mileage if the Congress-NCP alliance splits and the Congress allies with the MNS.