YSRC may ‘Floor’ Congress
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The YSR Congress, which is hoping to sweep the bypolls, is getting set to encourage ruling Congress legislators to switch sides post-election to force mid-term polls. According to intelligence reports, the YSR Congress would try to rock the Congress boat by luring its MLAs from June 16. The YSRC's plan is to get at least 20 Congress MLAs to go to Raj Bhavan with letters of withdrawal of support to the government.
The Congress now has 152 legislators (four legislators more than the magic number of 148 in a House of 295). Inputs suggest it will be difficult for the ruling party to keep its flock together. According to Raj Bhavan sources, if a “considerable number” of ruling party legislators defect, the Governor would have to direct the Chief Minister to convene the Assembly within 10 days and seek a Vote of Confidence.
Legal experts say that according to the Supreme Court judgements; recommendations of All India Governors' conferences and All India Presiding Officers of Legislature, the majority of the ruling party should be decided only through convening of Assembly, seeking trust vote and nothing else. Mere withdrawal letters by a few legislators don't amount to much as they may switch sides again.
So the Governor would have to make a decision and then direct the CM to seek a trust vote. This could lead another issue cropping up. The Congress leadership could ask the Assembly Speaker to disqualify the defecting MLAs along the lines of Karnataka Speaker Bapayya, who treated the withdrawal of support letters of a few MLAs as voluntarily giving up their membership of the House. This won't help the ruling party as the decision of the Karnataka Speaker was ultimately struck do-wn by the Supreme Court.
When asked about the possibility of recommending President's Rule to prevent political parties indulging in horse trading after the bypoll results, an informed source said, “Unless the situation involves a serious breach of Constitutional machinery of the state, the Governor cannot recommend President’s rule as the Supreme Court has ruled to treat such recommendations as justifiable. The apex court reprimanded the then Bihar Gove-rnor Buta Singh over a similar instance. Without other options (like seeking trust vote) explored, it is not possible to recommend imposition of President's rule in a hurry.” Either way, the post-polls scenario should be an interesting one.
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